Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

RB Bragantino vs Coritiba — Serie A 2026

RB Bragantino
RB Bragantino
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coritiba
Coritiba
12/3/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 37Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

RB Bragantino47%
×Draw26%
Coritiba27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino
1.45
Coritiba
1.02

RB Bragantino creates 42% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino
1.33
Coritiba
1.11

allows per match

RB Bragantino
0.93
Coritiba
1.57

finishing

RB Bragantino+0.37scores more
Coritiba+0.25scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino ↓

Coritiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

RB Bragantino or draw
73%
RB Bragantino or Coritiba
74%
Draw or Coritiba
53%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino wins by 2+
23%
Coritiba wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

RB Bragantino 1+ goals
77%
RB Bragantino 2+ goals
42%
RB Bragantino 3+ goals
18%
Coritiba 1+ goals
64%
Coritiba 2+ goals
27%
Coritiba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)
64%
Coritiba (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 20 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino attack 1.33 + Coritiba defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Coritiba attack 1.11 + RB Bragantino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

RB Bragantino scores more
47%
level
26%
Coritiba scores more
27%

RB Bragantino at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RB Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: RB Bragantino 1–0 Coritiba

RB Bragantino beat Coritiba 1-0 in Serie A on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Bragança Paulista, São Paulo.