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RB Bragantino U20 vs Velo Clube U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Velo Clube U20
Velo Clube U20
Andre Ricardo 34'
7/20/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 3CT do Red Bull Bragantino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

RB Bragantino U2059%
×Draw22%
Velo Clube U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino U20
1.91
Velo Clube U20
0.99

RB Bragantino U20 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino U20
2.42
Velo Clube U20
0.95

allows per match

RB Bragantino U20
1.04
Velo Clube U20
1.40

finishing

RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par
Velo Clube U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino U20 ↓

Velo Clube U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

RB Bragantino U20 or draw
81%
RB Bragantino U20 or Velo Clube U20
78%
Draw or Velo Clube U20
41%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
35%
Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
85%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
57%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
30%
Velo Clube U20 1+ goals
63%
Velo Clube U20 2+ goals
26%
Velo Clube U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino U20 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Velo Clube U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.42 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.91

Velo Clube U20 attack 0.95 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

RB Bragantino U20 scores more
59%
level
22%
Velo Clube U20 scores more
19%

RB Bragantino U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Andre Ricardo
90+2'
Filipe
90+2'
Filipe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RB Bragantino U20 1 – 0 Velo Clube U20

RB Bragantino U20 beat Velo Clube U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 20, 2024.

Goals: Andre Ricardo (34').

The match was played at CT do Red Bull Bragantino in Atibaia, São Paulo.