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RB Bragantino U20 vs Referencia U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Referencia U20
Referencia U20
Unknown 41'
Unknown 58', 36'
8/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 6CT do Red Bull Bragantino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

RB Bragantino U2058%
×Draw21%
Referencia U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino U20
2.15
Referencia U20
1.25

RB Bragantino U20 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino U20
2.42
Referencia U20
1.46

allows per match

RB Bragantino U20
1.04
Referencia U20
1.88

finishing

RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par
Referencia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino U20 ↓

Referencia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

RB Bragantino U20 or draw
78%
RB Bragantino U20 or Referencia U20
79%
Draw or Referencia U20
42%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
35%
Referencia U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
88%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
63%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
36%
Referencia U20 1+ goals
71%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
36%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
73%
Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino U20 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Referencia U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.42 + Referencia U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.15

Referencia U20 attack 1.46 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

RB Bragantino U20 scores more
58%
level
21%
Referencia U20 scores more
22%

RB Bragantino U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
41'
58'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RB Bragantino U20 vs Referencia U20

Referencia U20 beat RB Bragantino U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on August 10, 2024.

Goals: ? (36', 41', 58').

The match was played at CT do Red Bull Bragantino in Atibaia, São Paulo.