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RB Bragantino U20 vs Metropolitano FC U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Metropolitano FC U20
Metropolitano FC U20
P. Henrique 75'
P. Castro 71'
Andre Ricardo 62', 45+3'
Filipe 33'
D. Lucas 2'
L. Matos 7'
5/4/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Centro de Treinamento do Red Bull Brasil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

RB Bragantino U2075%
×Draw15%
Metropolitano FC U2010%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino U20
2.71
Metropolitano FC U20
0.92

RB Bragantino U20 creates 195% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 5 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino U20
2.42
Metropolitano FC U20
0.80

allows per match

RB Bragantino U20
1.04
Metropolitano FC U20
3.00

finishing

RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par
Metropolitano FC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino U20 ↓

Metropolitano FC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

RB Bragantino U20 or draw
90%
RB Bragantino U20 or Metropolitano FC U20
85%
Draw or Metropolitano FC U20
25%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
53%
Metropolitano FC U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
93%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
75%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
50%
Metropolitano FC U20 1+ goals
60%
Metropolitano FC U20 2+ goals
23%
Metropolitano FC U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
88%
Metropolitano FC U20 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino U20 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Metropolitano FC U20 away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.42 + Metropolitano FC U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.71

Metropolitano FC U20 attack 0.80 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

RB Bragantino U20 scores more
75%
level
15%
Metropolitano FC U20 scores more
10%

RB Bragantino U20 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
D. Lucas
7'
L. Matos
33'
Filipe
45+3'
Andre Ricardo
62'
Andre Ricardo
71'
P. Castro
75'
P. Henrique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: RB Bragantino U20 6–1 Metropolitano FC U20

RB Bragantino U20 beat Metropolitano FC U20 6-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 4, 2024.

Goals: D. Lucas (2'), L. Matos (7'), Filipe (33'), Andre Ricardo (45+3', 62'), P. Castro (71'), P. Henrique (75').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento do Red Bull Brasil in Jarinu, São Paulo.