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RB Bragantino U20 vs Ituano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ituano U20
Ituano U20
Yuri Leles 51'
Leozinho 85'
Guilherme Miranda 38'
Gabriel William 3'
6/28/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

RB Bragantino U2050%
×Draw22%
Ituano U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino U20
1.94
Ituano U20
1.42

RB Bragantino U20 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino U20
2.42
Ituano U20
1.80

allows per match

RB Bragantino U20
1.04
Ituano U20
1.45

finishing

RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par
Ituano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino U20 ↓

Ituano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

RB Bragantino U20 or draw
72%
RB Bragantino U20 or Ituano U20
78%
Draw or Ituano U20
50%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
28%
Ituano U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
86%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
58%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
30%
Ituano U20 1+ goals
76%
Ituano U20 2+ goals
41%
Ituano U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Ituano U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino U20 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Ituano U20 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.42 + Ituano U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.94

Ituano U20 attack 1.80 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

RB Bragantino U20 scores more
50%
level
22%
Ituano U20 scores more
28%

RB Bragantino U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Gabriel William
38'
Guilherme Miranda
51'
Yuri Leles
85'
Leozinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: RB Bragantino U20 1–3 Ituano U20

Ituano U20 beat RB Bragantino U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 28, 2025.

Goals: Gabriel William (3'), Guilherme Miranda (38'), Yuri Leles (51'), Leozinho (85').

The match was played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Bragança Paulista, São Paulo.