RB Bragantino U20 vs Guarani U20

RB Bragantino U20

Preview

18:00

Guarani U20

8/10/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 11

Big match

46%

RB Bragantino U20

model favours

46%24%30%

RB Bragantino U20 have scored in 21 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

RB Bragantino U2046%

×Draw24%

Guarani U2030%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB Bragantino U20Expected goals in this matchGuarani U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.25

RB Bragantino U20

1.62

Guarani U20

1.25

RB Bragantino U20 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

2.42

creates per match

1.45

1.04

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

RB Bragantino U20

2.42

Guarani U20

1.45

allows per match

RB Bragantino U20

1.04

Guarani U20

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par

Guarani U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino U20 ↓

Guarani U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

RB Bragantino U20 or draw

70%

RB Bragantino U20 or Guarani U20

76%

Draw or Guarani U20

54%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+

24%

Guarani U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals

80%

RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals

48%

RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals

22%

Guarani U20 1+ goals

71%

Guarani U20 2+ goals

36%

Guarani U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)

61%

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino U20 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Guarani U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.42 + Guarani U20 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.62

Guarani U20 attack 1.45 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

RB Bragantino U20 scores more

46%

level

24%

Guarani U20 scores more

30%

RB Bragantino U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

When RB Bragantino U20 score first, they win 100% of the time
Guarani U20 have won 4 in a row
71% of RB Bragantino U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Top-of-the-table clash — RB Bragantino U20 3 vs Guarani U20 2
33% of RB Bragantino U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

DWWWW

U20

WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff