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Guarani U20 vs RB Bragantino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Guarani U20
Guarani U20
FT
1 – 2
RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
4/13/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Centro de Treinamento do Guarani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Guarani U2033%
×Draw23%
RB Bragantino U2043%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani U20
1.48
RB Bragantino U20
1.71

RB Bragantino U20 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

creates per match

Guarani U20
2.21
RB Bragantino U20
2.54

allows per match

Guarani U20
0.88
RB Bragantino U20
0.75

finishing

Guarani U20+0.00on par
RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani U20 ↓

RB Bragantino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Guarani U20 or draw
57%
Guarani U20 or RB Bragantino U20
77%
Draw or RB Bragantino U20
67%

Winning margin

Guarani U20 wins by 2+
16%
RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Guarani U20 1+ goals
77%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
43%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
19%
RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
82%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
51%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
44%
RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani U20 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

RB Bragantino U20 away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani U20 attack 2.21 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.54 + Guarani U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guarani U20 scores more
33%
level
23%
RB Bragantino U20 scores more
43%

RB Bragantino U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guarani U20 vs RB Bragantino U20

RB Bragantino U20 beat Guarani U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento do Guarani in Campinas, São Paulo.