RB Bragantino U17 4–0 Santos U17: Result & Stats

RB Bragantino U17

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Santos U17

Luis Gustavo 78'

P. Henrique do Nascimento 57'

Caique 15'

J. Guilherme 8'

9/3/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 17CT do Red Bull Bragantino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

RB Bragantino U1745%

×Draw23%

Santos U1732%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB Bragantino U17Expected goals in this matchSantos U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.47

RB Bragantino U17

1.77

Santos U17

1.47

RB Bragantino U17 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

1.78

creates per match

1.38

1.56

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

RB Bragantino U17

1.78

Santos U17

1.38

allows per match

RB Bragantino U17

1.56

Santos U17

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Bragantino U17+0.00on par

Santos U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino U17 ↓

Santos U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

RB Bragantino U17 or draw

68%

RB Bragantino U17 or Santos U17

77%

Draw or Santos U17

55%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino U17 wins by 2+

24%

Santos U17 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

RB Bragantino U17 1+ goals

83%

RB Bragantino U17 2+ goals

53%

RB Bragantino U17 3+ goals

26%

Santos U17 1+ goals

77%

Santos U17 2+ goals

43%

Santos U17 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino U17 (draw refunded)

58%

Santos U17 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino U17 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Santos U17 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino U17 attack 1.78 + Santos U17 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Santos U17 attack 1.38 + RB Bragantino U17 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

RB Bragantino U17 scores more

45%

level

23%

Santos U17 scores more

32%

RB Bragantino U17 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "RB Bragantino U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Guilherme

15'

Caique

52'

J. Guilherme

57'

P. Henrique do Nascimento

78'

Luis Gustavo

85'

Jacare

85'

Jacare

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff