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RB Bragantino U17 vs Gremio U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

RB Bragantino U17
RB Bragantino U17
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Gremio U17
Gremio U17advanced
Joanderson 52'
Dudu 18'
J. Alves 90'
H. Vasconselos 61', 49'
Breno 39' (OG)
9/30/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

RB Bragantino U1753%
×Draw21%
Gremio U1726%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino U17
2.13
Gremio U17
1.44

RB Bragantino U17 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino U17
1.78
Gremio U17
1.32

allows per match

RB Bragantino U17
1.56
Gremio U17
2.47

finishing

RB Bragantino U17+0.00on par
Gremio U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino U17 ↓

Gremio U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

RB Bragantino U17 or draw
74%
RB Bragantino U17 or Gremio U17
79%
Draw or Gremio U17
47%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino U17 wins by 2+
32%
Gremio U17 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

RB Bragantino U17 1+ goals
88%
RB Bragantino U17 2+ goals
63%
RB Bragantino U17 3+ goals
35%
Gremio U17 1+ goals
76%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
42%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino U17 (draw refunded)
67%
Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino U17 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Gremio U17 away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino U17 attack 1.78 + Gremio U17 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.13

Gremio U17 attack 1.32 + RB Bragantino U17 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

RB Bragantino U17 scores more
53%
level
21%
Gremio U17 scores more
26%

RB Bragantino U17 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "RB Bragantino U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Dudu
39'
BrenoOwn goal
49'
H. Vasconselos
52'
Joanderson
61'
H. Vasconselos
90'
J. Alves

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RB Bragantino U17 vs Gremio U17

Gremio U17 beat RB Bragantino U17 4-2 in Brasileiro U17 on September 30, 2025.

Goals: Dudu (18'), Breno (39' o.g.), H. Vasconselos (49', 61'), Joanderson (52'), J. Alves (90').