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RB Bragantino U17 vs Fortaleza U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

RB Bragantino U17
RB Bragantino U17
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fortaleza U17
Fortaleza U17
Unknown 16'
Unknown 51'
8/6/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 6CT do Red Bull Bragantino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

RB Bragantino U1754%
×Draw22%
Fortaleza U1724%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino U17
1.92
Fortaleza U17
1.20

RB Bragantino U17 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino U17
1.78
Fortaleza U17
0.83

allows per match

RB Bragantino U17
1.56
Fortaleza U17
2.06

finishing

RB Bragantino U17+0.00on par
Fortaleza U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino U17 ↓

Fortaleza U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

RB Bragantino U17 or draw
76%
RB Bragantino U17 or Fortaleza U17
78%
Draw or Fortaleza U17
46%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino U17 wins by 2+
31%
Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RB Bragantino U17 1+ goals
85%
RB Bragantino U17 2+ goals
57%
RB Bragantino U17 3+ goals
30%
Fortaleza U17 1+ goals
70%
Fortaleza U17 2+ goals
34%
Fortaleza U17 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino U17 (draw refunded)
69%
Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino U17 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Fortaleza U17 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino U17 attack 1.78 + Fortaleza U17 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.92

Fortaleza U17 attack 0.83 + RB Bragantino U17 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

RB Bragantino U17 scores more
54%
level
22%
Fortaleza U17 scores more
24%

RB Bragantino U17 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "RB Bragantino U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
51'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: RB Bragantino U17 1–1 Fortaleza U17

RB Bragantino U17 and Fortaleza U17 drew 1-1 in Brasileiro U17 on August 6, 2024.

Goals: ? (16', 51').

The match was played at CT do Red Bull Bragantino in Atibaia, São Paulo.