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Rayong United vs Sukhothai FC — League Cup 2021

Rayong United
Rayong United
FT
2 – 0
Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
11/3/2021League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsCK Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rayong United52%
×Draw25%
Sukhothai FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayong United
1.60
Sukhothai FC
0.97

Rayong United creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Rayong United
2.00
Sukhothai FC
0.80

allows per match

Rayong United
1.14
Sukhothai FC
1.20

finishing

Rayong United+0.00on par
Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong United ↓

Sukhothai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rayong United or draw
77%
Rayong United or Sukhothai FC
75%
Draw or Sukhothai FC
48%

Winning margin

Rayong United wins by 2+
27%
Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rayong United 1+ goals
80%
Rayong United 2+ goals
47%
Rayong United 3+ goals
22%
Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
62%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
25%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rayong United (draw refunded)
69%
Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong United attack 2.00 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sukhothai FC attack 0.80 + Rayong United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rayong United scores more
52%
level
25%
Sukhothai FC scores more
23%

Rayong United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rayong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Rayong United 2–0 Sukhothai FC

Rayong United beat Sukhothai FC 2-0 in League Cup on November 3, 2021.

The match was played at CK Stadium in Rayong.