Rayong United 3–1 Krabi FC: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Rayong United

3 – 1

Krabi FC

11/8/2020

FA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rayong United40%

×Draw22%

Krabi FC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayong UnitedExpected goals in this matchKrabi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.83

Rayong United

1.88

Krabi FC

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.75

creates per match

1.17

2.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Rayong United

1.75

Krabi FC

1.17

allows per match

Rayong United

2.50

Krabi FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayong United+0.00on par

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong United ↓

Krabi FC →

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Rayong United or draw

62%

Rayong United or Krabi FC

78%

Draw or Krabi FC

60%

Winning margin

Rayong United wins by 2+

21%

Krabi FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rayong United 1+ goals

85%

Rayong United 2+ goals

56%

Rayong United 3+ goals

29%

Krabi FC 1+ goals

84%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

54%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Rayong United (draw refunded)

51%

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayong United at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayong United attack 1.75 + Krabi FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Krabi FC attack 1.17 + Rayong United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rayong United scores more

40%

level

22%

Krabi FC scores more

38%

Rayong United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rayong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff