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Rayong United vs Cha Choeng Sao — League Cup 2021

Rayong United
Rayong United
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cha Choeng Sao
Cha Choeng Sao
9/2/2023League CupLeague Cup · 1st Qualifying RoundCK Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rayong United40%
×Draw25%
Cha Choeng Sao35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayong United
1.50
Cha Choeng Sao
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Rayong United
2.00
Cha Choeng Sao
1.67

allows per match

Rayong United
1.14
Cha Choeng Sao
1.00

finishing

Rayong United+0.00on par
Cha Choeng Sao+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong United ↓

Cha Choeng Sao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rayong United or draw
65%
Rayong United or Cha Choeng Sao
75%
Draw or Cha Choeng Sao
60%

Winning margin

Rayong United wins by 2+
19%
Cha Choeng Sao wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rayong United 1+ goals
78%
Rayong United 2+ goals
44%
Rayong United 3+ goals
19%
Cha Choeng Sao 1+ goals
75%
Cha Choeng Sao 2+ goals
41%
Cha Choeng Sao 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rayong United (draw refunded)
53%
Cha Choeng Sao (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Cha Choeng Sao away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong United attack 2.00 + Cha Choeng Sao defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cha Choeng Sao attack 1.67 + Rayong United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rayong United scores more
40%
level
25%
Cha Choeng Sao scores more
35%

Rayong United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rayong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Rayong United 1–1 Cha Choeng Sao

Rayong United and Cha Choeng Sao drew 1-1 in League Cup on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at CK Stadium in Rayong.