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Rayong FC vs Ubon UMT — Thai League 2 2018

Rayong FC
Rayong FC
FT
1 – 0
Ubon UMT
Ubon UMT
5/19/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 13Rayong Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rayong FC56%
×Draw24%
Ubon UMT20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayong FC
1.67
Ubon UMT
0.89

Rayong FC creates 88% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rayong FC
1.57
Ubon UMT
0.82

allows per match

Rayong FC
0.96
Ubon UMT
1.76

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par
Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Ubon UMT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw
80%
Rayong FC or Ubon UMT
76%
Draw or Ubon UMT
44%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+
30%
Ubon UMT wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals
81%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
50%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
23%
Ubon UMT 1+ goals
59%
Ubon UMT 2+ goals
22%
Ubon UMT 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)
74%
Ubon UMT (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

Ubon UMT away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.57 + Ubon UMT defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ubon UMT attack 0.82 + Rayong FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rayong FC scores more
56%
level
24%
Ubon UMT scores more
20%

Rayong FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Rayong FC 1–0 Ubon UMT

Rayong FC beat Ubon UMT 1-0 in Thai League 2 on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Rayong Stadium (Rayong).