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Rayong FC vs Suphanburi — FA Cup 2018

Rayong FC
Rayong FC
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Suphanburi
Suphanburi
6/19/2019FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rayong FC46%
×Draw21%
Suphanburi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayong FC
2.13
Suphanburi
1.78

Rayong FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rayong FC
2.60
Suphanburi
2.56

allows per match

Rayong FC
1.00
Suphanburi
1.67

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par
Suphanburi+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Suphanburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw
67%
Rayong FC or Suphanburi
79%
Draw or Suphanburi
54%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+
27%
Suphanburi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals
88%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
63%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
35%
Suphanburi 1+ goals
83%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
53%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)
58%
Suphanburi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Suphanburi away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 2.60 + Suphanburi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Suphanburi attack 2.56 + Rayong FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rayong FC scores more
46%
level
21%
Suphanburi scores more
33%

Rayong FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayong FC vs Suphanburi

Rayong FC and Suphanburi drew 0-0 in FA Cup on June 19, 2019.