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Rayong FC vs Ranong United — Thai League 2 2018

Rayong FC
Rayong FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ranong United
Ranong United
8/20/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 2Rayong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rayong FC57%
×Draw24%
Ranong United19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayong FC
1.74
Ranong United
0.90

Rayong FC creates 93% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 49 away

creates per match

Rayong FC
1.70
Ranong United
0.86

allows per match

Rayong FC
0.94
Ranong United
1.78

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par
Ranong United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Ranong United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw
81%
Rayong FC or Ranong United
76%
Draw or Ranong United
43%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+
32%
Ranong United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals
82%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
52%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
25%
Ranong United 1+ goals
59%
Ranong United 2+ goals
23%
Ranong United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)
75%
Ranong United (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.94 · 70 matches

Ranong United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.70 + Ranong United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.74

Ranong United attack 0.86 + Rayong FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rayong FC scores more
57%
level
24%
Ranong United scores more
19%

Rayong FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Rayong FC 0–0 Ranong United

Rayong FC and Ranong United drew 0-0 in Thai League 2 on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Rayong Stadium in Rayong.