Rayong FC 1–1 Raj Pracha: Result & Stats

Rayong FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Raj Pracha

9/3/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 4Rayong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rayong FC53%

×Draw26%

Raj Pracha21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayong FCExpected goals in this matchRaj Pracha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.82

Rayong FC

1.49

Raj Pracha

0.82

Rayong FC creates 82% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 34 away

1.57

creates per match

0.68

0.96

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Rayong FC

1.57

Raj Pracha

0.68

allows per match

Rayong FC

0.96

Raj Pracha

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Raj Pracha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw

79%

Rayong FC or Raj Pracha

74%

Draw or Raj Pracha

47%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+

27%

Raj Pracha wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals

77%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

44%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

19%

Raj Pracha 1+ goals

56%

Raj Pracha 2+ goals

20%

Raj Pracha 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

72%

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.57 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Rayong FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rayong FC scores more

53%

level

26%

Raj Pracha scores more

21%

Rayong FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff