Rayong FC 1–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya: Result & Stats

Rayong FC

FT

1 – 0

Nong Bua Pitchaya

7/14/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 20Rayong Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Rayong FC44%

×Draw26%

Nong Bua Pitchaya30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayong FCExpected goals in this matchNong Bua Pitchaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.15

Rayong FC

1.44

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.15

Rayong FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 83 away

1.57

creates per match

1.34

0.96

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Rayong FC

1.57

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.34

allows per match

Rayong FC

0.96

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw

70%

Rayong FC or Nong Bua Pitchaya

74%

Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya

56%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+

21%

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals

76%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

42%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

18%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

68%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

32%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

59%

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.57 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Rayong FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rayong FC scores more

44%

level

26%

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

30%

Rayong FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff