Rayong FC 1–1 Nakhon Si Thammarat: Result & Stats

Rayong FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nakhon Si Thammarat

9/2/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 4Rayong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rayong FC53%

×Draw25%

Nakhon Si Thammarat22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayong FCExpected goals in this matchNakhon Si Thammarat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.96

Rayong FC

1.65

Nakhon Si Thammarat

0.96

Rayong FC creates 72% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 69 away

1.57

creates per match

0.97

0.96

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Rayong FC

1.57

Nakhon Si Thammarat

0.97

allows per match

Rayong FC

0.96

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw

78%

Rayong FC or Nakhon Si Thammarat

75%

Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat

47%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+

29%

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals

81%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

49%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

23%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

62%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

25%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

71%

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.57 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Rayong FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rayong FC scores more

53%

level

25%

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

22%

Rayong FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff