Rayong FC 3–2 Muangkan United: Result & Stats

Rayong FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Muangkan United

9/12/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 2Chonburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rayong FC45%

×Draw23%

Muangkan United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayong FCExpected goals in this matchMuangkan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.54

Rayong FC

1.85

Muangkan United

1.54

Rayong FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

2.12

0.96

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Rayong FC

1.57

Muangkan United

2.12

allows per match

Rayong FC

0.96

Muangkan United

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Muangkan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Muangkan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw

68%

Rayong FC or Muangkan United

77%

Draw or Muangkan United

55%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+

25%

Muangkan United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals

84%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

55%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

28%

Muangkan United 1+ goals

79%

Muangkan United 2+ goals

45%

Muangkan United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

58%

Muangkan United (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

Muangkan United away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.57 + Muangkan United defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.85

Muangkan United attack 2.12 + Rayong FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rayong FC scores more

45%

level

23%

Muangkan United scores more

32%

Rayong FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff