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Rayong FC vs Khon Kaen United — FA Cup 2018

Rayong FC
Rayong FC
FT
0 – 1
Khon Kaen United
Khon Kaen United
10/27/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundPTT Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rayong FC64%
×Draw19%
Khon Kaen United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayong FC
2.38
Khon Kaen United
1.17

Rayong FC creates 103% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rayong FC
2.60
Khon Kaen United
1.33

allows per match

Rayong FC
1.00
Khon Kaen United
2.17

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par
Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Khon Kaen United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw
83%
Rayong FC or Khon Kaen United
81%
Draw or Khon Kaen United
36%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+
42%
Khon Kaen United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals
91%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
68%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
42%
Khon Kaen United 1+ goals
69%
Khon Kaen United 2+ goals
33%
Khon Kaen United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)
78%
Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 2.60 + Khon Kaen United defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.38

Khon Kaen United attack 1.33 + Rayong FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Rayong FC scores more
64%
level
19%
Khon Kaen United scores more
17%

Rayong FC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayong FC vs Khon Kaen United

Khon Kaen United beat Rayong FC 1-0 in FA Cup on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at PTT Stadium in Rayong.