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Rayong FC vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Rayong FC
Rayong FC
FT
3 – 2
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
7/15/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 21Rayong Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Rayong FC56%
×Draw24%
Kasetsart FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayong FC
1.71
Kasetsart FC
0.92

Rayong FC creates 86% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 132 away

creates per match

Rayong FC
1.57
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Rayong FC
0.96
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw
80%
Rayong FC or Kasetsart FC
76%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
44%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+
31%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals
82%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
51%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
24%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
60%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
23%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)
73%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.57 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Rayong FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rayong FC scores more
56%
level
24%
Kasetsart FC scores more
20%

Rayong FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayong FC vs Kasetsart FC

Rayong FC beat Kasetsart FC 3-2 in Thai League 2 on July 15, 2018.

The match was played at Rayong Stadium (Rayong).