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Kasetsart FC vs Rayong FC — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
12/4/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 16Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kasetsart FC39%
×Draw26%
Rayong FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.39
Rayong FC
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 84 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Rayong FC
1.45

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Rayong FC
1.45

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
64%
Kasetsart FC or Rayong FC
74%
Draw or Rayong FC
61%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
18%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
75%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
40%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
16%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
74%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
38%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
52%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Rayong FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rayong FC attack 1.45 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
39%
level
26%
Rayong FC scores more
36%

Kasetsart FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasetsart FC vs Rayong FC

Kasetsart FC and Rayong FC drew 0-0 in Thai League 2 on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Intree Chantarasatit Stadium in Bangkok.