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Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi — FA Cup 2018

Rayong FC
Rayong FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kanchanaburi
Kanchanaburi
11/20/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundWHA Rayong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rayong FC59%
×Draw21%
Kanchanaburi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayong FC
2.13
Kanchanaburi
1.17

Rayong FC creates 82% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rayong FC
2.60
Kanchanaburi
1.33

allows per match

Rayong FC
1.00
Kanchanaburi
1.67

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par
Kanchanaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Kanchanaburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw
80%
Rayong FC or Kanchanaburi
79%
Draw or Kanchanaburi
41%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+
36%
Kanchanaburi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals
88%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
63%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
35%
Kanchanaburi 1+ goals
69%
Kanchanaburi 2+ goals
33%
Kanchanaburi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)
74%
Kanchanaburi (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Kanchanaburi away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 2.60 + Kanchanaburi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kanchanaburi attack 1.33 + Rayong FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rayong FC scores more
59%
level
21%
Kanchanaburi scores more
20%

Rayong FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayong FC vs Kanchanaburi

Rayong FC beat Kanchanaburi 3-2 in FA Cup on November 20, 2024.

The match was played at WHA Rayong Stadium in Rayong.