Rayong FC 2–0 Customs United: Result & Stats

Rayong FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Customs United

4/17/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 32Rayong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Rayong FC54%

×Draw24%

Customs United22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayong FCExpected goals in this matchCustoms United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.01

Rayong FC

1.71

Customs United

1.01

Rayong FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 87 away

1.57

creates per match

1.06

0.96

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Rayong FC

1.57

Customs United

1.06

allows per match

Rayong FC

0.96

Customs United

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Customs United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Customs United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw

78%

Rayong FC or Customs United

76%

Draw or Customs United

46%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+

29%

Customs United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals

82%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

51%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

24%

Customs United 1+ goals

64%

Customs United 2+ goals

27%

Customs United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

71%

Customs United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

Customs United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.57 + Customs United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

Customs United attack 1.06 + Rayong FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rayong FC scores more

54%

level

24%

Customs United scores more

22%

Rayong FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff