Rayong FC 1–1 Chanthaburi: Result & Stats

Rayong FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chanthaburi

3/16/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 29Rayong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Rayong FC51%

×Draw25%

Chanthaburi24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayong FCExpected goals in this matchChanthaburi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.02

Rayong FC

1.60

Chanthaburi

1.02

Rayong FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 50 away

1.57

creates per match

1.08

0.96

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Rayong FC

1.57

Chanthaburi

1.08

allows per match

Rayong FC

0.96

Chanthaburi

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Chanthaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Chanthaburi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw

76%

Rayong FC or Chanthaburi

75%

Draw or Chanthaburi

49%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+

27%

Chanthaburi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals

80%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

47%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

22%

Chanthaburi 1+ goals

64%

Chanthaburi 2+ goals

27%

Chanthaburi 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

68%

Chanthaburi (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

Chanthaburi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.57 + Chanthaburi defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Chanthaburi attack 1.08 + Rayong FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rayong FC scores more

51%

level

25%

Chanthaburi scores more

24%

Rayong FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff