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Rayong FC vs Army United — Thai League 2 2018

Rayong FC
Rayong FC
FT
3 – 1
Army United
Army United
4/28/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 11Rayong Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rayong FC46%
×Draw26%
Army United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayong FC
1.46
Army United
1.06

Rayong FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 31 away

creates per match

Rayong FC
1.57
Army United
1.16

allows per match

Rayong FC
0.96
Army United
1.35

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par
Army United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Army United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw
73%
Rayong FC or Army United
74%
Draw or Army United
54%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+
23%
Army United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals
77%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
43%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
18%
Army United 1+ goals
65%
Army United 2+ goals
29%
Army United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)
63%
Army United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

Army United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.57 + Army United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Army United attack 1.16 + Rayong FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rayong FC scores more
46%
level
26%
Army United scores more
27%

Rayong FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayong FC vs Army United

Rayong FC beat Army United 3-1 in Thai League 2 on April 28, 2019.

The match was played at Rayong Stadium (Rayong).