Rayon Sports 3–0 Sunrise: Result & Stats

Rayon Sports

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sunrise

10/21/2023

National Soccer League · Round 8Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rayon Sports50%

×Draw27%

Sunrise23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayon SportsExpected goals in this matchSunrise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.87

Rayon Sports

1.44

Sunrise

0.87

Rayon Sports creates 66% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 51 away

1.44

creates per match

0.98

0.76

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Rayon Sports

1.44

Sunrise

0.98

allows per match

Rayon Sports

0.76

Sunrise

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayon Sports+0.00on par

Sunrise+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayon Sports ↓

Sunrise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rayon Sports or draw

77%

Rayon Sports or Sunrise

73%

Draw or Sunrise

50%

Winning margin

Rayon Sports wins by 2+

25%

Sunrise wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rayon Sports 1+ goals

76%

Rayon Sports 2+ goals

42%

Rayon Sports 3+ goals

18%

Sunrise 1+ goals

58%

Sunrise 2+ goals

22%

Sunrise 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rayon Sports (draw refunded)

69%

Sunrise (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayon Sports at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.76 · 95 matches

Sunrise away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayon Sports attack 1.44 + Sunrise defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sunrise attack 0.98 + Rayon Sports defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rayon Sports scores more

50%

level

27%

Sunrise scores more

23%

Rayon Sports at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rayon Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff