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Rayo Zuliano vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Primera División 2018

Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
4/29/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 12Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rayo Zuliano43%
×Draw27%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Zuliano
1.34
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.05

Rayo Zuliano creates 28% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 64 away

creates per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.20
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.98

allows per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.12
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.48

finishing

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Zuliano ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rayo Zuliano or draw
71%
Rayo Zuliano or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
73%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
57%

Winning margin

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
20%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
74%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
39%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
15%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
65%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
28%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
60%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Zuliano at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 49 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.20 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rayo Zuliano scores more
43%
level
27%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
29%

Rayo Zuliano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rayo Zuliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rayo Zuliano 1 – 1 CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Rayo Zuliano and CD Hermanos Colmenarez drew 1-1 in Primera División on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero in Maracaibo.