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Rayo Zuliano vs Atlético La Cruz — Segunda División 2018

Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
FT
0 – 1
Atlético La Cruz
Atlético La Cruz
9/18/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship Round - 5Sede Deportiva Lino Alonso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Rayo Zuliano45%
×Draw28%
Atlético La Cruz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Zuliano
1.29
Atlético La Cruz
0.92

Rayo Zuliano creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 50 away

creates per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.33
Atlético La Cruz
1.08

allows per match

Rayo Zuliano
0.76
Atlético La Cruz
1.26

finishing

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par
Atlético La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Zuliano ↓

Atlético La Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rayo Zuliano or draw
73%
Rayo Zuliano or Atlético La Cruz
72%
Draw or Atlético La Cruz
55%

Winning margin

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
21%
Atlético La Cruz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
72%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
37%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
14%
Atlético La Cruz 1+ goals
60%
Atlético La Cruz 2+ goals
23%
Atlético La Cruz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
63%
Atlético La Cruz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Zuliano at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Atlético La Cruz away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.33 + Atlético La Cruz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Atlético La Cruz attack 1.08 + Rayo Zuliano defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rayo Zuliano scores more
45%
level
28%
Atlético La Cruz scores more
27%

Rayo Zuliano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rayo Zuliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Zuliano vs Atlético La Cruz

Atlético La Cruz beat Rayo Zuliano 1-0 in Segunda División on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Sede Deportiva Lino Alonso in Maracaibo.