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Rayo Vallecano W vs Malaga W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Rayo Vallecano W
Rayo Vallecano W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malaga W
Malaga W
12/1/2018Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 11Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 (Madrid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rayo Vallecano W55%
×Draw24%
Malaga W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano W
1.75
Malaga W
1.01

Rayo Vallecano W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano W
1.22
Malaga W
0.40

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano W
1.62
Malaga W
2.27

finishing

Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par
Malaga W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano W ↓

Malaga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano W or draw
78%
Rayo Vallecano W or Malaga W
76%
Draw or Malaga W
45%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+
30%
Malaga W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals
83%
Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals
52%
Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals
25%
Malaga W 1+ goals
64%
Malaga W 2+ goals
27%
Malaga W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)
72%
Malaga W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

Malaga W away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano W attack 1.22 + Malaga W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

Malaga W attack 0.40 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rayo Vallecano W scores more
55%
level
24%
Malaga W scores more
22%

Rayo Vallecano W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Rayo Vallecano W 1–0 Malaga W

Rayo Vallecano W beat Malaga W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 (Madrid).