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Rayo Vallecano W vs Madrid CFF W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Rayo Vallecano W
Rayo Vallecano W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
11/22/2020Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 9Ciudad Deportiva Fundación Rayo Vallecano Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rayo Vallecano W41%
×Draw23%
Madrid CFF W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano W
1.67
Madrid CFF W
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 119 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano W
1.22
Madrid CFF W
1.44

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano W
1.62
Madrid CFF W
2.13

finishing

Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par
Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano W ↓

Madrid CFF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano W or draw
65%
Rayo Vallecano W or Madrid CFF W
77%
Draw or Madrid CFF W
59%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+
21%
Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals
81%
Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals
50%
Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals
23%
Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
78%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
45%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)
54%
Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano W attack 1.22 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rayo Vallecano W scores more
41%
level
23%
Madrid CFF W scores more
35%

Rayo Vallecano W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Rayo Vallecano W 1–4 Madrid CFF W

Madrid CFF W beat Rayo Vallecano W 4-1 in Primera División Femenina on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Fundación Rayo Vallecano Campo 1 in Madrid.