Rayo Vallecano 4–1 Oviedo: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Oviedo

L. Ahijado 70' (OG)

Y. Qasmi 45+2' (pen)

Isi 38'

S. Comesana 8'

G. Blanco 28'

5/20/2021

Segunda División · Round 40Estadio de Vallecas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rayo Vallecano45%

×Draw28%

Oviedo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo VallecanoExpected goals in this matchOviedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.96

Rayo Vallecano

1.31

Oviedo

0.96

Rayo Vallecano creates 36% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 151 away

1.45

creates per match

0.95

0.98

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano

1.45

Oviedo

0.95

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano

0.98

Oviedo

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano+0.00on par

Oviedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano ↓

Oviedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano or draw

73%

Rayo Vallecano or Oviedo

72%

Draw or Oviedo

55%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+

21%

Oviedo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals

73%

Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals

38%

Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals

14%

Oviedo 1+ goals

62%

Oviedo 2+ goals

25%

Oviedo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)

62%

Oviedo (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.98 · 44 matches

Oviedo away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.17 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano attack 1.45 + Oviedo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Oviedo attack 0.95 + Rayo Vallecano defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rayo Vallecano scores more

45%

level

28%

Oviedo scores more

27%

Rayo Vallecano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Borja Valle

Oviedo · F

7.7

Match Events

8'

S. Comesana↳ A. Garcia

28'

G. Blanco↳ Borja

35'

E. Saveljich

38'

Isi

45+2'

Y. QasmiPenalty

57'

E. Gonzalez

69'

O. Valentin

70'

L. AhijadoOwn goal

71'

Y. Qasmi← Antonin

71'

S. Obeng← B. Sanchez

71'

Viti← M. Sangalli

77'

S. Comesana← M. Suarez

77'

Isi← A. Martin

81'

Borja← Rodri

83'

E. Saveljich← E. Velazquez

83'

O. Valentin← Pozo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RayoOviedo

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots8

4Corners5

16Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target3

5Off Target3

3Blocked2

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

450Total Passes367

372Accurate Passes276

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0