Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Extremadura: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Extremadura

1/26/2020

Segunda División · Round 25Estadio de Vallecas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Rayo Vallecano45%

×Draw27%

Extremadura28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo VallecanoExpected goals in this matchExtremadura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.02

Rayo Vallecano

1.38

Extremadura

1.02

Rayo Vallecano creates 35% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 42 away

1.45

creates per match

1.07

0.98

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano

1.45

Extremadura

1.07

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano

0.98

Extremadura

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano+0.00on par

Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano ↓

Extremadura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano or draw

72%

Rayo Vallecano or Extremadura

73%

Draw or Extremadura

55%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+

21%

Extremadura wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals

75%

Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals

40%

Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals

16%

Extremadura 1+ goals

64%

Extremadura 2+ goals

27%

Extremadura 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)

62%

Extremadura (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.98 · 44 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano attack 1.45 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Rayo Vallecano defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rayo Vallecano scores more

45%

level

27%

Extremadura scores more

28%

Rayo Vallecano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff