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Rayo Vallecano II vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
10/31/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II44%
×Draw26%
Villanueva Pardillo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano II
1.43
Villanueva Pardillo
1.13

Rayo Vallecano II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 50 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.76
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.35
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw
70%
Rayo Vallecano II or Villanueva Pardillo
74%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
56%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
21%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
76%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
42%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
17%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
68%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
31%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
60%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.43

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more
44%
level
26%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
30%

Rayo Vallecano II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rayo Vallecano II 2 – 0 Villanueva Pardillo

Rayo Vallecano II beat Villanueva Pardillo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5 in Madrid.