Rayo Vallecano II 1–0 Santa Ana: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano II

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Ana

11/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 5Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II53%

×Draw23%

Santa Ana24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano IIExpected goals in this matchSanta Ana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.16

Rayo Vallecano II

1.85

Santa Ana

1.16

Rayo Vallecano II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 31 away

1.76

creates per match

0.97

1.35

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.76

Santa Ana

0.97

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.35

Santa Ana

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Santa Ana →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw

76%

Rayo Vallecano II or Santa Ana

77%

Draw or Santa Ana

47%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+

30%

Santa Ana wins by 2+

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals

84%

Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals

55%

Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals

28%

Santa Ana 1+ goals

69%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

32%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)

69%

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Santa Ana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.85

Santa Ana attack 0.97 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more

53%

level

23%

Santa Ana scores more

24%

Rayo Vallecano II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Rayo Vallecano II 1–0 Santa Ana

Rayo Vallecano II beat Santa Ana 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5 in Madrid.

Rayo Vallecano II vs Santa Ana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Rayo Vallecano II 1–0 Santa Ana