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Rayo Vallecano II vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II50%
×Draw23%
San Fernando Henares27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano II
1.79
San Fernando Henares
1.25

Rayo Vallecano II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 29 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.76
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.35
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw
73%
Rayo Vallecano II or San Fernando Henares
77%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
50%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
27%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
83%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
53%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
26%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
71%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
36%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
65%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more
50%
level
23%
San Fernando Henares scores more
27%

Rayo Vallecano II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano II vs San Fernando Henares

Rayo Vallecano II and San Fernando Henares drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5 in Madrid.