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Rayo Vallecano II vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II42%
×Draw25%
RSD Alcalá33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano II
1.48
RSD Alcalá
1.29

Rayo Vallecano II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 99 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.76
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.35
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw
67%
Rayo Vallecano II or RSD Alcalá
75%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
58%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
20%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
77%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
43%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
19%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
72%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
37%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
56%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more
42%
level
25%
RSD Alcalá scores more
33%

Rayo Vallecano II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano II vs RSD Alcalá

Rayo Vallecano II beat RSD Alcalá 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 in Madrid.