Rayo Vallecano II 1–4 Real Madrid III

Rayo Vallecano II

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Real Madrid III

3/30/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II35%

×Draw26%

Real Madrid III39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano IIExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.35

Rayo Vallecano II

1.26

Real Madrid III

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

1.76

creates per match

1.35

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.76

Real Madrid III

1.35

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.35

Real Madrid III

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Real Madrid III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Real Madrid III →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw

61%

Rayo Vallecano II or Real Madrid III

74%

Draw or Real Madrid III

65%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+

15%

Real Madrid III wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals

72%

Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals

36%

Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals

13%

Real Madrid III 1+ goals

74%

Real Madrid III 2+ goals

39%

Real Madrid III 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)

47%

Real Madrid III (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Real Madrid III away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Real Madrid III defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.26

Real Madrid III attack 1.35 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more

35%

level

26%

Real Madrid III scores more

39%

Real Madrid III at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff