Rayo Vallecano II 6–0 Real Aranjuez: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano II

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Real Aranjuez

4/2/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II59%

×Draw21%

Real Aranjuez20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano IIExpected goals in this matchReal Aranjuez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.08

Rayo Vallecano II

2.02

Real Aranjuez

1.08

Rayo Vallecano II creates 87% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 31 away

1.76

creates per match

0.81

1.35

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.76

Real Aranjuez

0.81

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.35

Real Aranjuez

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Real Aranjuez →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw

80%

Rayo Vallecano II or Real Aranjuez

79%

Draw or Real Aranjuez

41%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+

35%

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals

87%

Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals

60%

Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals

33%

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals

66%

Real Aranjuez 2+ goals

29%

Real Aranjuez 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)

75%

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.02

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more

59%

level

21%

Real Aranjuez scores more

20%

Rayo Vallecano II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Rayo Vallecano II 6–0 Real Aranjuez

Rayo Vallecano II beat Real Aranjuez 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 in Madrid.

Rayo Vallecano II vs Real Aranjuez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Rayo Vallecano II 6–0 Real Aranjuez