Rayo Vallecano II 2–2 Madrid 2021 FP

Rayo Vallecano II

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Madrid 2021 FP

12/11/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II43%

×Draw25%

Madrid 2021 FP32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano IIExpected goals in this matchMadrid 2021 FP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.31

Rayo Vallecano II

1.55

Madrid 2021 FP

1.31

Rayo Vallecano II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 35 away

1.76

creates per match

1.26

1.35

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.76

Madrid 2021 FP

1.26

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.35

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw

68%

Rayo Vallecano II or Madrid 2021 FP

75%

Draw or Madrid 2021 FP

57%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+

21%

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals

79%

Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals

46%

Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals

20%

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

73%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

38%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)

57%

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.55

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more

43%

level

25%

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

32%

Rayo Vallecano II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano II vs Madrid 2021 FP

Rayo Vallecano II and Madrid 2021 FP drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 in Madrid.

Rayo Vallecano II vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano II vs Madrid 2021 FP