Rayo Vallecano II 3–1 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano II

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Las Rozas

11/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II41%

×Draw25%

Las Rozas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano IIExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.29

Rayo Vallecano II

1.46

Las Rozas

1.29

Rayo Vallecano II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 88 away

1.76

creates per match

1.23

1.35

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.76

Las Rozas

1.23

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.35

Las Rozas

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Las Rozas →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw

67%

Rayo Vallecano II or Las Rozas

75%

Draw or Las Rozas

59%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+

20%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals

77%

Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals

43%

Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals

18%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

72%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

37%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)

55%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more

41%

level

25%

Las Rozas scores more

33%

Rayo Vallecano II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Rayo Vallecano II 3–1 Las Rozas

Rayo Vallecano II beat Las Rozas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 2 in Madrid.

Rayo Vallecano II vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Rayo Vallecano II 3–1 Las Rozas