Rayo Vallecano II 0–1 Galapagar: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Galapagar

10/6/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 5Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II46%

×Draw25%

Galapagar29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano IIExpected goals in this matchGalapagar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.17

Rayo Vallecano II

1.56

Galapagar

1.17

Rayo Vallecano II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 86 away

1.76

creates per match

0.99

1.35

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.76

Galapagar

0.99

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.35

Galapagar

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Galapagar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Galapagar →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw

71%

Rayo Vallecano II or Galapagar

75%

Draw or Galapagar

54%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+

24%

Galapagar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals

79%

Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals

46%

Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals

21%

Galapagar 1+ goals

69%

Galapagar 2+ goals

33%

Galapagar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)

62%

Galapagar (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Galapagar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.37 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Galapagar defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Galapagar attack 0.99 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more

46%

level

25%

Galapagar scores more

29%

Rayo Vallecano II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Rayo Vallecano II 0–1 Galapagar

Galapagar beat Rayo Vallecano II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 in Madrid.

Rayo Vallecano II vs Galapagar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Rayo Vallecano II 0–1 Galapagar