Rayo Vallecano II 3–0 Flat Earth: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano II

3 – 0

Flat Earth

12/8/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 16Ciudad Deportiva Fundación Rayo Vallecano Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II46%

×Draw26%

Flat Earth28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano IIExpected goals in this matchFlat Earth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.08

Rayo Vallecano II

1.48

Flat Earth

1.08

Rayo Vallecano II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 28 away

1.76

creates per match

0.82

1.35

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.76

Flat Earth

0.82

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.35

Flat Earth

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Flat Earth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Flat Earth →

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw

72%

Rayo Vallecano II or Flat Earth

74%

Draw or Flat Earth

54%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+

23%

Flat Earth wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals

77%

Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals

43%

Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals

19%

Flat Earth 1+ goals

66%

Flat Earth 2+ goals

29%

Flat Earth 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)

63%

Flat Earth (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Flat Earth away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Flat Earth defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Flat Earth attack 0.82 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more

46%

level

26%

Flat Earth scores more

28%

Rayo Vallecano II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano II vs Flat Earth

Rayo Vallecano II beat Flat Earth 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Fundación Rayo Vallecano Campo 1 in Madrid.

Rayo Vallecano II vs Flat Earth — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano II vs Flat Earth