Rayo Vallecano II 1–4 Complutense: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano II

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Complutense

3/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II53%

×Draw25%

Complutense22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano IIExpected goals in this matchComplutense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.91

Rayo Vallecano II

1.59

Complutense

0.91

Rayo Vallecano II creates 75% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 36 away

1.76

creates per match

0.47

1.35

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.76

Complutense

0.47

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II

1.35

Complutense

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Complutense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Complutense →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw

78%

Rayo Vallecano II or Complutense

75%

Draw or Complutense

47%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+

28%

Complutense wins by 2+

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals

80%

Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals

47%

Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals

21%

Complutense 1+ goals

60%

Complutense 2+ goals

23%

Complutense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)

71%

Complutense (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Complutense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Complutense defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

Complutense attack 0.47 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more

53%

level

25%

Complutense scores more

22%

Rayo Vallecano II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano II vs Complutense

Complutense beat Rayo Vallecano II 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5 in Madrid.

Rayo Vallecano II vs Complutense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano II vs Complutense