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Rayo Vallecano II vs Atlético Pinto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II49%
×Draw24%
Atlético Pinto27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano II
1.73
Atlético Pinto
1.23

Rayo Vallecano II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 29 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.76
Atlético Pinto
1.10

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.35
Atlético Pinto
1.69

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par
Atlético Pinto+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Atlético Pinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw
73%
Rayo Vallecano II or Atlético Pinto
76%
Draw or Atlético Pinto
51%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
26%
Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
82%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
52%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
25%
Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
64%
Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Atlético Pinto away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Atlético Pinto attack 1.10 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more
49%
level
24%
Atlético Pinto scores more
27%

Rayo Vallecano II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rayo Vallecano II 2 – 0 Atlético Pinto

Rayo Vallecano II beat Atlético Pinto 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5 in Madrid.