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Rayo Vallecano II vs Aravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aravaca
Aravaca
9/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II51%
×Draw25%
Aravaca24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano II
1.65
Aravaca
1.06

Rayo Vallecano II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.76
Aravaca
0.76

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.35
Aravaca
1.53

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par
Aravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Aravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw
76%
Rayo Vallecano II or Aravaca
75%
Draw or Aravaca
49%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
27%
Aravaca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
81%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
49%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
23%
Aravaca 1+ goals
65%
Aravaca 2+ goals
29%
Aravaca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
68%
Aravaca (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Aravaca away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Aravaca attack 0.76 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more
51%
level
25%
Aravaca scores more
24%

Rayo Vallecano II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Vallecano II vs Aravaca

Rayo Vallecano II and Aravaca drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 in Madrid.