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Rayo Vallecano II vs Alcorcón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Rayo Vallecano II
Rayo Vallecano II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
4/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Rayo Vallecano II40%
×Draw26%
Alcorcón II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano II
1.43
Alcorcón II
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.76
Alcorcón II
1.26

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano II
1.35
Alcorcón II
1.10

finishing

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par
Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano II ↓

Alcorcón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano II or draw
66%
Rayo Vallecano II or Alcorcón II
74%
Draw or Alcorcón II
60%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+
19%
Alcorcón II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals
76%
Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals
42%
Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals
17%
Alcorcón II 1+ goals
73%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
38%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)
54%
Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.76 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.43

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rayo Vallecano II scores more
40%
level
26%
Alcorcón II scores more
34%

Rayo Vallecano II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rayo Vallecano II 0 – 0 Alcorcón II

Rayo Vallecano II and Alcorcón II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5 in Madrid.