Rayo Majadahonda 3–2 Zamora: Result & Stats

Rayo Majadahonda

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Zamora

Héctor Hernández 69' (pen), 66', 24'

Gorri 80'

Marcos Baselga 34'

5/21/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda40%

×Draw28%

Zamora32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo MajadahondaExpected goals in this matchZamora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.06

Rayo Majadahonda

1.23

Zamora

1.06

Rayo Majadahonda creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

1.17

creates per match

1.04

1.07

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.17

Zamora

1.04

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.07

Zamora

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Zamora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw

68%

Rayo Majadahonda or Zamora

72%

Draw or Zamora

60%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

17%

Zamora wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

71%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

35%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

13%

Zamora 1+ goals

65%

Zamora 2+ goals

29%

Zamora 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

56%

Zamora (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Zamora attack 1.04 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

40%

level

28%

Zamora scores more

32%

Rayo Majadahonda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

24'

34'

37'

63'

Mawi← Javi Gómez

66'

Héctor Hernández

67'

Mario Losada← J. Dongou

69'

Héctor HernándezPenalty

76'

C. Yanis← Javi Navas

76'

Dani Hernández← Juanan

76'

Kepa Vieites← Marcos Baselga

77'

M. Rodríguez← Héctor Hernández

77'

Rubén Sánchez← Nando García

80'

Gorri

84'

Mario García← Néstor Albiach

84'

Tropi← Juanjo

84'

Adri Herrera← Jorge Fernández

90'

K. Vieites Blazquez

Rayo

Zamora

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

Hernández

▼

Gómez

Manager: Abel Gómez

63'▲Mawi←▼Javi Gómez

77'▲M. Rodríguez←▼Héctor Hernández

77'▲Rubén Sánchez←▼Nando García

84'▲Mario García←▼Néstor Albiach

84'▲Tropi←▼Juanjo

Rayo Majadahonda substitutes

MawiRodríguezSánchezGarcíaTropiFernándezVegaClaudioSusaetaOsei

Manager: Yago Iglesias

67'▲Mario Losada←▼J. Dongou

76'▲C. Yanis←▼Javi Navas

76'▲Dani Hernández←▼Juanan

76'▲Kepa Vieites←▼Marcos Baselga

84'▲Adri Herrera←▼Jorge Fernández

Zamora substitutes

LosadaYanisHernándezVieitesHerreraNdiayeParraEspejoMikelVillanuevaCampos

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Rayo Majadahonda 3–2 Zamora

Rayo Majadahonda beat Zamora 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 21, 2022.

Goals: Héctor Hernández (24', 66', 69' pen), Marcos Baselga (34'), Gorri (80').

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.

Rayo Majadahonda vs Zamora — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Rayo Majadahonda 3–2 Zamora