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Rayo Majadahonda vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
1/15/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda42%
×Draw28%
San Fernando CD30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.25
San Fernando CD
1.01

Rayo Majadahonda creates 24% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 19 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.17
San Fernando CD
0.95

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.07
San Fernando CD
1.32

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

San Fernando CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
70%
Rayo Majadahonda or San Fernando CD
72%
Draw or San Fernando CD
58%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
19%
San Fernando CD wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
71%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
36%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
13%
San Fernando CD 1+ goals
64%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
27%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
58%
San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

San Fernando CD attack 0.95 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
42%
level
28%
San Fernando CD scores more
30%

Rayo Majadahonda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Majadahonda vs San Fernando CD

Rayo Majadahonda beat San Fernando CD 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.